The game of check-mate has started for the elections being held on three Rajya Sabha seats of Madhya Pradesh. In terms of the number of MLAs, two seats were considered confirmed for BJP and one seat for Congress, but by fielding Mahesh Kewat as the third candidate, BJP has increased the political tension of Meenakshi Natarjan, close to Rahul Gandhi?
For Rajya Sabha seats, BJP has fielded Mahesh Kewat after Tarun Chugh and Rajneesh Aggarwal, while Congress has placed its bet on former MP Meenakshi Natarajan. In this way, four candidates are trying their luck for three seats.
After the announcement of names of BJP and Congress candidates for Madhya Pradesh Rajya Sabha elections, the possibility of unopposed elections has ended and the decision will be taken only through voting. In such a situation, now the real problem seems to be regarding cross voting of MLAs.
What is the numbers game of Rajya Sabha elections?
There are a total of 230 members of the Legislative Assembly in Madhya Pradesh, but at present there are 228 members. Of these, BJP has 164 MLAs and Congress has 64 MLAs. To win a Rajya Sabha seat in the Rajya Sabha elections, any candidate needs the support of at least 58 MLAs (first preference votes).
On the basis of MLAs, two seats of BJP are confirmed and Congress can win one seat, but after the entry of third candidate of BJP, the matter has become complicated. BJP needs votes of 116 MLAs to win two Rajya Sabha seats on the basis of 164 MLAs.
After winning two seats, BJP needs 48 additional votes whereas Congress can win one seat on the basis of 64 MLAs, even after that, additional votes of 6 MLAs are being obtained, but the matter is due to the field of third candidate of BJP.
Competition for the third Rajya Sabha seat
Based on the number of MLAs, after BJP secures 2 Rajya Sabha seats, it will be left with 48 MLAs, for which it will need additional 10 votes to win the third Rajya Sabha seat. Whereas Congress has the necessary numbers to win a Rajya Sabha seat, but the announcement of the third candidate by BJP has increased its concerns and made the path of victory difficult for Meenakshi Natarajan.
The decision to field BJP’s third candidate Mahesh Kewat has increased the heartbeat of Congress. This move by BJP shows that the party is either confident of getting the support of MLAs outside its party or it feels that cross-voting can change the final result.
Danger of cross voting for Rajya Sabha
Madhya Pradesh’s Rajya Sabha election, which was supposed to be a normal election, has turned into a contest on which everyone’s eyes are fixed. Now everyone’s eyes will be on cross-voting, abstention and last-minute political moves from the day of voting.
For BJP, fielding a third candidate is an ambitious attempt to increase its presence in the Upper House. For the Congress, this is a test of its ability to keep its party united and save the seat which, according to the current figures, seems within its reach.
Congress’s political tension increased
Although Congress has 64 MLAs, the Supreme Court has stopped Vijaypur MLA Mukesh Malhotra from voting in the Rajya Sabha elections due to his conviction by the court in the election affidavit case. At the same time, Bina MLA Nirmala Sapre had informally joined BJP before the Lok Sabha elections and the matter of her disqualification is stuck.
Rajendra Bharti of Datia has already been disqualified. In such a situation, Congress has 62 valid votes left. Statistically, Congress can easily win one seat, but due to the rebellion, there is a danger of cross voting and one seat is with Bharat Adivasi Party. Not only this, Congress has fielded Meenakshi Natarajan, who is considered close to Rahul Gandhi, but this decision has started showing dissatisfaction in the party. Due to this the problem of cross voting has deepened.
For those who know the politics of Madhya Pradesh closely, ‘break’ or ‘revolt’ in Congress during Rajya Sabha elections is not a new thing. There has been an old and bitter relationship between Rajya Sabha elections and cross-voting or rebellion in the Congress in the state.
Remember the events of March 2020. Even at that time, Rajya Sabha elections were on the horizon and there was a huge fear of cross-voting, but what happened created an upheaval in the politics of the entire country. This is why with the entry of Mahesh Kevat into the fray, Madhya Pradesh Rajya Sabha elections have become one of the most interesting political contests of this season.
—- End —-